U.S. Idea Futures Exchange Introduction

An Introduction to the U.S. Idea Futures Exchange (USIFEX)

An idea futures market is like a commodity futures market, but trades a broader range of objects, mainly abstract "objects" (ideas) such as:

"$1 if a Democrat is elected U.S. president in 2000, else $0"
"the inflation rate in 2004 if Bill Bradley is president"
"Microsoft's 4th quarter earnings per share"

Traders buy and sell/sell short contracts of claims which will be settled on or before a pre-specified date at a price determined by the idea described in the terms of the claim.

Idea futures markets should make it possible to quantify answers which people would otherwise be vague or imprecise about, and can potentially insure that the answers are unbiased forecasts from people whose past forecasts have been good.

The U.S. Idea Futures Exchange is a web-based service which allows people to invest play-money in issues relevant to U.S. financial, economic, and political controversies.

To get started, you should register here to create an account, find some claims in which you are interested (the Claims/Activity page provides a number of ways to find claims), and then go to the Trade page to place an order to buy or sell some contracts. You are encouraged to join the mailing list that is used to discuss the market.

A more theoretical introduction to idea futures, written by Robin Hanson, who pioneered the concept, is available here.

Here are some examples of similar exchanges:

I also recommend reading the novel EarthWeb for a vision (not fully realistic) of how well-developed idea futures markets might be valuable.

Frequently Asked Questions